Companies don't fail overnight. In 73% of cases, warning signs appear 6 to 12 months before insolvency proceedings, but they remain invisible to traditional assessment methods.
Here are the 5 patterns our models detect systematically.
Supplier Payment Delays: The Hidden Thermometer
Supplier payment days (SPD) is one of the most reliable indicators of a company's cash health. Unlike the annual balance sheet, it moves in real time and reflects liquidity tensions before they crystallize.
A rise from 30 to 65 days over two quarters is systematically correlated with increased fragility. In our database of 3,000+ files, this signal alone increases the probability of default within 12 months by 2.8x.
In 3,000+ analyzed files, companies whose SPD exceeded 60 days for two consecutive quarters had a 12-month default rate of 18.4%, versus 3.2% for those with stable SPD.
Abnormal Director Rotation
Every management change registered in public records generates a signal in our engine. An unplanned CEO or CFO departure, especially combined with a short tenure, indicates organizational fragility that financial ratios don't capture.
High-risk patterns include:
- 2+ management changes in 18 months - CFO resignation less than 6 months after a fundraise - Asset pledging immediately after a new director's appointment
Director rotation is an organizational signal, not a financial one. Almost all classic models ignore it. That's precisely why it's predictive.
Digital Presence Degradation
A company that stops investing in its online presence is actually signaling an undisclosed budget restriction. Metrics we continuously analyze:
- SEO ranking loss (top 10): -40% in 3 months = +8 risk pts - Google Ads spend reduction: -60% = +5 risk pts - LinkedIn inactivity: more than 90 days = +3 risk pts - Domain expiry: less than 60 days = +12 risk pts
From August 2, 2026, any score used in a commercial decision must justify its contributing variables (EU AI Act). RocketFin provides the 5 main variables per score, including digital signals.
Early Legal Signals
Public records contain early indicators that very few operators cross-reference with financial data. Our engine monitors:
Asset pledging: a sudden pledge of a business goodwill or industrial equipment often reveals a short-term liquidity tension the company is trying to finance through a secured loan.
Confidential conciliation proceedings: although not published, their existence often shows up in pledge registries. Strong signal with 6x higher probability of failure.
Companies with a pledge registered in the 6 months preceding analysis have 4.2x higher probability of default within 12 months, all else being equal.
Gap Between Declared Performance and Behavioral Signals
The fifth signal is the most subtle and often the most predictive. It's a discrepancy between what the company communicates (figures, speech) and what its behaviors reveal.
Concrete examples:
- An SME announcing 40% growth but whose banking flows are stagnant - A director displaying growing public optimism while multiplying personal guarantees - Customer payment delays lengthening while the company communicates a full order book
This discrepancy is measured by our engine through cross-referencing declarative data (balance sheets, registrations) and behavioral data (flows, legal, digital).
What This Means for Your Credit Decision
These 5 signals form the backbone of our predictive model. Individually, each has limited value. Combined and weighted by sector and company size, they produce a score with 87% accuracy at 12 months, versus 61% for traditional balance-sheet-only methods.
The practical difference: out of 100 analyzed files, our models correctly identify 87 at-risk profiles versus 61 with classic methods. For a 500-client portfolio, this statistically represents 130 avoided defaults per year.